06Raider
10-25-2009, 04:11 PM
After an e-mail exchange with DP sports editor Nick Matthews in which I was told "As for previews, unfortunately we won’t have room in print for them. We are trying to find a time we might get them online. Sorry.", I'm not exactly holding my breath that the DP actually bothers to preview Thursday's meet. Apparently they still haven't found a time to add the season previews online either.
Anyway, here are my two cents on Thursday's meet. Even though I coach for a PD school, this is my impartial, unbiased assessment of the District right now.
Girls
The individual race is Kristina Woodard's (Hampton) to lose. I think Elisabeth Drake (Gloucester) will give her a good run, but Woodard will win her 2nd consecutive individual title. Victoria Worrall (Phoebus), Morganne Roundy (Gloucester), Tori Lewis-Johnson (Bethel), Ashley Dixon (Warwick) and the Menchville trio of Danielle Anderson, Mallory Swett, and Meredith McDowell should be the next few across the line.
For the team title, Gloucester comes in looking for its 6th straight title. The Dukes handled the move of Coach Heidi Overbay better than I thought, and look well-positioned again this year. According to Milestat.com's rankings, Gloucester edges Menchville by one point for the team title. Gloucester has a front-runner in Drake, but Menchville has a solid pack. I'm going to go against the rankings and say that Menchville beats Gloucester in a close one, bringing the girls' PD title back to Newport News for the first time since Warwick won in 2002. Warwick, after not fielding a full girls' team last year, should finish 3rd, while Coach Rick Hartung's Bethel girls will finish 4th and be the last PD team to advance to the Eastern Region Championship Meet.
Boys
The boys' individual race should be a close one this year. Menchville senior David Gerlach is looking to win his second straight PD individual title, but has some competition on his own team from junior Graham Wilson. Bethel sophomore William Brown has the fastest time coming into the meet, but will face a tough fight from the two Monarchs behind him. If Wilson and Gerlach run a smart tactical race, they'll beat Brown and help themselves in the team title hunt. I think Wilson gets the win and Gerlach holds on for second, with Brown third. There will be another 30 seconds or so before the next finishers come through the line. At least 11 of the top 15 spots will probably go to Menchville and Gloucester runners, with Brown, Woodside's Remington Roth, Kecoughtan's Corey Ames, and Denbigh's Keith MacDonald (a Bayside transfer) rounding out that top 15.
The team title here is also very close between Menchville and Gloucester. Gloucester shows a slight edge in the Milestat.com rankings and beat Menchville by 3 points head-to-head earlier this season. Menchville has a faster top 3, but Gloucester has a slightly better 4-5. Both of these are great teams, but I think Menchville will pull out the win. Kecoughtan's boys will be 3rd, with a rebuilt Warwick team edging Bethel for the final Eastern Region berth.
Notes
-A Menchville sweep will bring both team District titles back to Newport News for the first time since Warwick did it in 2002.
-Denbigh's Keith MacDonald could be the 1st Denbigh runner to advance to the Eastern Region meet since Derrick Robbins did in 2002 when he won the individual boys' title.
-If Gerlach and Woodard win, the District has back-to-back individual champions for both boys and girls for the third time this decade. The previous two were 2002-2003 with Derrick Robbins (Denbigh) and Emily Webb (Gloucester) and 2003-2004 with Robbins and Webb again.
-Woodard is the only non-Menchville or non-Gloucester girl to win a PD title this decade.
-3 of the 5 fastest athletes for both boys and girls are not seniors, hopefully signifying a resurgence in PD distance running.
Team PD Titles Since 2000
Girls
Gloucester-6 (2001,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008)
Bethel-2 (2000,2003)
Warwick-1 (2002)
Boys
Gloucester-4 (2003,2004,2006,2007)
Warwick-2 (2001,2002)
Menchville-1 (2008)
Kecoughtan-1 (2005)
Bethel-1 (2000)
Individual PD Titles Since 2000
Girls
Gloucester-5 (Varnell-2007, Webb-2003,2004,2005,2006)
Menchville-3 (Isaacs-2000,2001,2002)
Hampton-1 (Woodard-2008)
Boys
Woodside-3 (Robbins-2003,2004, Parker-2000)
Gloucester-2 (Fenstermacher-2006,2007)
Menchville-1 (Gerlach-2008)
Bethel-1 (Cummings-2005)
Denbigh-1 (Robbins-2002)
Warwick-1 (Amatu-2001)
Anyway, here are my two cents on Thursday's meet. Even though I coach for a PD school, this is my impartial, unbiased assessment of the District right now.
Girls
The individual race is Kristina Woodard's (Hampton) to lose. I think Elisabeth Drake (Gloucester) will give her a good run, but Woodard will win her 2nd consecutive individual title. Victoria Worrall (Phoebus), Morganne Roundy (Gloucester), Tori Lewis-Johnson (Bethel), Ashley Dixon (Warwick) and the Menchville trio of Danielle Anderson, Mallory Swett, and Meredith McDowell should be the next few across the line.
For the team title, Gloucester comes in looking for its 6th straight title. The Dukes handled the move of Coach Heidi Overbay better than I thought, and look well-positioned again this year. According to Milestat.com's rankings, Gloucester edges Menchville by one point for the team title. Gloucester has a front-runner in Drake, but Menchville has a solid pack. I'm going to go against the rankings and say that Menchville beats Gloucester in a close one, bringing the girls' PD title back to Newport News for the first time since Warwick won in 2002. Warwick, after not fielding a full girls' team last year, should finish 3rd, while Coach Rick Hartung's Bethel girls will finish 4th and be the last PD team to advance to the Eastern Region Championship Meet.
Boys
The boys' individual race should be a close one this year. Menchville senior David Gerlach is looking to win his second straight PD individual title, but has some competition on his own team from junior Graham Wilson. Bethel sophomore William Brown has the fastest time coming into the meet, but will face a tough fight from the two Monarchs behind him. If Wilson and Gerlach run a smart tactical race, they'll beat Brown and help themselves in the team title hunt. I think Wilson gets the win and Gerlach holds on for second, with Brown third. There will be another 30 seconds or so before the next finishers come through the line. At least 11 of the top 15 spots will probably go to Menchville and Gloucester runners, with Brown, Woodside's Remington Roth, Kecoughtan's Corey Ames, and Denbigh's Keith MacDonald (a Bayside transfer) rounding out that top 15.
The team title here is also very close between Menchville and Gloucester. Gloucester shows a slight edge in the Milestat.com rankings and beat Menchville by 3 points head-to-head earlier this season. Menchville has a faster top 3, but Gloucester has a slightly better 4-5. Both of these are great teams, but I think Menchville will pull out the win. Kecoughtan's boys will be 3rd, with a rebuilt Warwick team edging Bethel for the final Eastern Region berth.
Notes
-A Menchville sweep will bring both team District titles back to Newport News for the first time since Warwick did it in 2002.
-Denbigh's Keith MacDonald could be the 1st Denbigh runner to advance to the Eastern Region meet since Derrick Robbins did in 2002 when he won the individual boys' title.
-If Gerlach and Woodard win, the District has back-to-back individual champions for both boys and girls for the third time this decade. The previous two were 2002-2003 with Derrick Robbins (Denbigh) and Emily Webb (Gloucester) and 2003-2004 with Robbins and Webb again.
-Woodard is the only non-Menchville or non-Gloucester girl to win a PD title this decade.
-3 of the 5 fastest athletes for both boys and girls are not seniors, hopefully signifying a resurgence in PD distance running.
Team PD Titles Since 2000
Girls
Gloucester-6 (2001,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008)
Bethel-2 (2000,2003)
Warwick-1 (2002)
Boys
Gloucester-4 (2003,2004,2006,2007)
Warwick-2 (2001,2002)
Menchville-1 (2008)
Kecoughtan-1 (2005)
Bethel-1 (2000)
Individual PD Titles Since 2000
Girls
Gloucester-5 (Varnell-2007, Webb-2003,2004,2005,2006)
Menchville-3 (Isaacs-2000,2001,2002)
Hampton-1 (Woodard-2008)
Boys
Woodside-3 (Robbins-2003,2004, Parker-2000)
Gloucester-2 (Fenstermacher-2006,2007)
Menchville-1 (Gerlach-2008)
Bethel-1 (Cummings-2005)
Denbigh-1 (Robbins-2002)
Warwick-1 (Amatu-2001)